Social distancing scenarios
Scenarios evaluated
Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
- The Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
- The % of original \(R0\): % of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
- The % increase from current: % increase from current (as of 2020-05-21) level of social distancing / contact rate
| Scenario | % of orig. R0 | % increase from current | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.0 | 0.00000 | 0.96 |
| 1 | 36.7 | 52.91667 | 1.47 |
| 2 | 49.3 | 105.41667 | 1.98 |
| 3 | 62.0 | 158.33333 | 2.49 |
| 4 | 74.7 | 211.25000 | 3.00 |
| 5 | 87.3 | 263.75000 | 3.50 |
| 6 | 100.0 | 316.66667 | 4.01 |
Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts
Scenario 0
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 0.96
- % of original R0: 24
- % Increase from current: 0
Scenario 1
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 1.47
- % of original R0: 36.7
- % Increase from current: 52.9166667
Scenario 2
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 1.98
- % of original R0: 49.3
- % Increase from current: 105.4166667
Scenario 3
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 2.49
- % of original R0: 62
- % Increase from current: 158.3333333
Scenario 4
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 3
- % of original R0: 74.7
- % Increase from current: 211.25
Scenario 5
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 3.5
- % of original R0: 87.3
- % Increase from current: 263.75
Scenario 6
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 4.01
- % of original R0: 100
- % Increase from current: 316.6666667
