Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario % of orig. R0 % increase from current Effective R0
0 24.0 0.00000 0.96
1 36.7 52.91667 1.47
2 49.3 105.41667 1.98
3 62.0 158.33333 2.49
4 74.7 211.25000 3.00
5 87.3 263.75000 3.50
6 100.0 316.66667 4.01

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 0.96
  • % of original R0: 24
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.47
  • % of original R0: 36.7
  • % Increase from current: 52.9166667

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.98
  • % of original R0: 49.3
  • % Increase from current: 105.4166667

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.49
  • % of original R0: 62
  • % Increase from current: 158.3333333

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3
  • % of original R0: 74.7
  • % Increase from current: 211.25

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.5
  • % of original R0: 87.3
  • % Increase from current: 263.75

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 4.01
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 316.6666667